How should we make decisions about potential catastrophes? 

Humanity risks being affected by a range of catastrophes, such as devastating climate change, nuclear war, deadly pandemics, and bioterrorism. How can we deal with these risks in a rational and ethically responsible manner? Wallenberg Academy Fellow Orri Stefánsson will examine this question. 

How great is the probability that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine will turn into nuclear war? This is one example of a question that is important for humanity, but which is also very difficult to answer. 

Orri Stefánsson, professor at Stockholm University and researcher both at the Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study and Institute for Futures Studies, investigates how we can assess risk and manage potential catastrophes in a more rational manner. He develops tools that can help us by combining methods and theories from three areas of philosophy – decision theory, epistemology and ethics – with statistics, economics and political theory.

One of the central issues is which principles to use when making decisions about catastrophes. Many people believe we should base them upon the precautionary principle. But what does that actually entail? Orri Stefánsson will also investigate how we can determine probability for risks that are extremely difficult to evaluate, as well as how we should consider the value of protecting ourselves from irreparable damage – what is it that makes irreparable damage a bad thing? The aim is to make us better able to deal with all the challenges humanity is facing. 

Photo Patrik Lundin